2027 Social Security COLA: Announcement Date, 3.4%-3.6% Estimates and What It Means for Your Check

The 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is not official yet: the Social Security Administration (SSA) is expected to announce it on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, right after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes September inflation data at 8:30 a.m. ET. As of October 9, the leading forecasts range from about 3.4% to 3.6%, with 3.5% the most common estimate. That compares with 2.8% for 2026, and it works out to roughly $68 to $72 more per month on a $2,000 check, before any change in your Medicare Part B premium.

Below you'll find how the number is calculated, what the forecasts are based on, worked dollar examples, and how Medicare, taxes, and the earnings test fit in. You'll also get a short checklist of things to do before the new amounts start in January. Every figure is labeled as either official or an estimate.

When will the 2027 COLA be announced?

The BLS CPI release schedule lists the September 2026 Consumer Price Index for Wednesday, October 14, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET. September is the last of the three months that go into the formula. SSA normally announces the COLA the same morning, and AARP, The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), and several news outlets all point to October 14.

The schedule can change, though. Last year, SSA announced the 2026 COLA on October 24, 2025, so check the BLS calendar if the date seems to slip.

When the new amount is paid:

• Social Security: the COLA applies to December 2026 benefits, which are paid in January 2027.
• SSI: SSA says January SSI payments are always made at the end of the previous December because January 1 is a holiday, so the higher SSI amount should arrive around December 31, 2026.

How the COLA is calculated

The formula is set in law, and SSA explains it on its latest COLA page. The COLA is the percentage increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) from the third-quarter (July–September) average of the last year a COLA took effect to the third-quarter average of the current year. The result is rounded to the nearest 0.1%. If there's no increase, there's no COLA.

Here's how it worked for 2026: the Q3 2025 CPI-W average was 317.265, compared with 308.729 for Q3 2024. That's a 2.8% increase, which became the 2026 COLA. So 317.265 is the base for 2027.

Two of the three 2026 numbers are already published:

• July 2026 CPI-W: 327.104, up 3.4% from a year earlier (BLS July release)
• August 2026 CPI-W: 328.481, up 3.5% from a year earlier (BLS August release)
• September 2026 CPI-W: out October 14

One note: SSA uses the CPI-W, not the headline CPI-U you usually see in the news. The two often move together, but they aren't the same index.

What current estimates say (as of October 9, 2026)

With two-thirds of the data in, the forecasts are close together:

• The Senior Citizens League: 3.5%. TSCL called this its final prediction on September 11, down 0.1 point from its previous month's forecast.
• AARP: 3.6%. AARP's forecast, updated September 11, uses CPI-W data through August plus the Cleveland Fed's inflation projection for September.
• Nowflation tracker: 3.5%. This independent model, updated October 9, applies SSA's formula to a September nowcast.

Here's our own check using only published BLS numbers. If September's CPI-W were exactly the same as August's, the Q3 average would be about 328.022. That's about 3.39% above the 2025 base, which rounds to 3.4%. Getting to 3.5% needs September to rise about 0.17% from August (unadjusted). Getting to 3.6% needs about a 0.46% rise. For the COLA to drop to 3.3%, the index would have to fall by more than about 0.12% in September.

So a 3.4%–3.6% range is a reasonable planning assumption, but it's still an estimate. Any of those numbers would be the largest COLA since the 8.7% increase paid in 2023 (SSA COLA history).

What 3.4% to 3.6% means for your monthly check

The COLA is a percentage of your current benefit, so bigger checks get bigger dollar raises. These are estimates, before any Medicare premium change. SSA's own rounding may move your actual amount by a dollar or so.

Current monthly benefit	At 3.4% (est.)	At 3.5% (est.)	At 3.6% (est.)
$1,500	+$51 → $1,551	+$52.50 → $1,552.50	+$54 → $1,554
$2,000	+$68 → $2,068	+$70 → $2,070	+$72 → $2,072
$3,000	+$102 → $3,102	+$105 → $3,105	+$108 → $3,108

For context, SSA estimated the average retired-worker benefit at $2,071 a month after the 2026 COLA. AARP puts the average at about $2,086 as of July 2026 and expects about $75 more at 3.6%. Over a full year, a 3.5% raise on a $2,000 check adds about $840.

The Medicare Part B offset and the hold-harmless rule

If you have Medicare Part B, the premium usually comes straight out of your Social Security payment. Part of your raise goes to that.

• 2026 standard Part B premium: $202.90 a month, up $17.90 from $185.00 in 2025. The 2026 deductible is $283 (CMS fact sheet).
• 2027 projection: the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects $209.50, up $6.60, with a $292 deductible (AARP summary, KFF analysis). This is a projection. CMS normally announces the official 2027 premium later in the fall.

Example (estimate): Say your check is $2,000 and you pay the standard premium. A 3.5% COLA adds $70. If the premium rises by the projected $6.60, your net deposit goes up about $63.40. That's a much smaller bite than last year's $17.90 premium jump.

Hold-harmless rule. SSA's hold-harmless provision keeps a standard Part B premium increase from shrinking your net Social Security payment. You generally qualify if you got benefits for November and December and had Part B deducted for December and January. It doesn't cover people new to Part B, people paying the income-related surcharge (IRMAA), or people whose premium is paid by Medicaid. With a mid-3% COLA and a projected $6.60 increase, the rule would only matter for very small checks (under roughly $190 a month at 3.5%).

Higher earners: the 2026 surcharges start at modified AGI above $109,000 (single) or $218,000 (joint), based on your tax return from two years earlier.

Will a bigger COLA raise your taxes on benefits?

It might. The IRS uses your "combined" (provisional) income: adjusted gross income, plus tax-exempt interest, plus half of your Social Security. According to SSA and an SSA research paper:

• Up to 50% of benefits can be taxed once combined income passes $25,000 (single) or $32,000 (married filing jointly).
• Up to 85% can be taxed above $34,000 (single) or $44,000 (joint).
• These thresholds are not indexed for inflation, so they haven't changed since they were set in 1983 and 1993.

That means every COLA pushes a few more retirees over the line, even when their buying power hasn't grown. On the other side, the IRS enhanced senior deduction gives people 65 and older an extra $6,000 deduction ($12,000 for a married couple if both qualify) for tax years 2025 through 2028. It phases out above $75,000 of modified AGI ($150,000 joint). If you don't want a bill in April, SSA lets you have 7%, 10%, 12%, or 22% of each payment withheld for federal tax.

SSI, veterans, and federal retirees

• SSI: federal SSI payments go up by the same COLA. The 2026 federal payment standard is $994 a month for an individual and $1,491 for a couple (SSA 2026 fact sheet). The 2027 amounts will come with the announcement.
• VA disability compensation: each year's Veterans' COLA Act ties VA compensation to the Social Security percentage. For 2026, that meant 2.8%, effective December 1, 2025 (VA notice in the Federal Register).
• Federal civilian retirees: under OPM's rules, CSRS annuities get the full CPI-W increase. FERS gets the full increase if it's 2% or less, a flat 2% if it's between 2% and 3%, and the increase minus one percentage point above 3%. So a 3.5% COLA would mean about 2.5% for most FERS retirees. FERS COLAs generally don't start until age 62, except for disability, survivor, and special-provision retirees.

Still working? The 2026 earnings test and what changes in 2027

If you claimed benefits before full retirement age (FRA) and still work, the retirement earnings test applies. For 2026:

• Under FRA all year: $24,480 ($2,040/month). SSA withholds $1 for every $2 you earn above that.
• The year you reach FRA: $65,160 ($5,430/month), counting only earnings before the month you reach FRA. SSA withholds $1 for every $3 above that.
• From the month you reach FRA: no limit.

Withheld benefits aren't lost. SSA recalculates your benefit upward once you reach FRA. The 2027 limits are tied to wage growth, not the COLA, and SSA usually publishes them in its COLA fact sheet on announcement day.

What to do now

• Sign in to my Social Security. SSA posts your personal COLA notice there with your exact new amount and deductions. Last year, people had to opt out of paper notices by a mid-November deadline to get the notice online. Paper notices went out by mail starting in early December.
• Budget at the low end. Plan around 3.4% and treat anything higher as a cushion. Then subtract the projected Part B increase if you pay it.
• Check your Medicare plan during Open Enrollment, October 15 to December 7. Changes take effect January 1 (Medicare.gov). Read your plan's Annual Notice of Change. A higher drug or Medicare Advantage premium can quietly use up part of your raise.
• Review your tax withholding if your combined income is near $25,000 or $32,000.
• Watch October 14. The official figure will replace every estimate in this article.

FAQ

Is 3.5% the official 2027 COLA?

No. As of October 9, 2026, 3.5% is a forecast (TSCL and Nowflation), and AARP projects 3.6%. Only SSA sets the official number, and it needs the September CPI-W due October 14.

When will I actually see the extra money?

Social Security beneficiaries get it in their January 2027 payment. SSI recipients should see it around December 31, 2026.

Could the COLA come in below 3.4%?

Not likely, based on our math. The CPI-W would have to fall more than about 0.12% from August to September to round down to 3.3%. A big swing in energy prices could still move it a tenth either way.

Does the COLA decide my Medicare premium?

No. CMS sets Part B premiums separately, usually later in the fall. The COLA only matters for the hold-harmless protection and for how much of your raise is left after the premium.

Bottom line

The 2027 COLA will likely land in the mid-3% range, the biggest raise since 2023, and the official number comes on October 14. On a $2,000 check, plan for roughly $68 to $72 more a month. If the Part B premium rises by the projected $6.60, the net gain is closer to $61 to $65. Use the next few weeks to check your Medicare plan, update your budget, and make sure you can see your COLA notice online.

Sources: Social Security Administration (latest COLA computation, COLA history, 2026 COLA fact sheet and press release, earnings test, taxation of benefits, hold-harmless provision), Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI release schedule and July/August 2026 CPI releases), CMS and Medicare.gov (2026 Part B premium, Open Enrollment), 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projections as summarized by AARP and KFF, The Senior Citizens League, AARP, Nowflation, OPM, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and the IRS. 2027 COLA figures are estimates as of October 9, 2026, and will be replaced by SSA's official announcement. This article is for general information only and is not tax, legal, or financial advice.